Where Will IonQ Stock Be in 5 Years?
The quantum computing industry is in its infancy. Although some analysts believe the industry won’t hit its stride for several more years, many small companies have emerged to capitalize on this technology.
Among these emerging companies, I believe IonQ (IONQ -2.66%) has better odds than most of its start-up quantum computing peers and could easily beat the market over the next five years. However, with the high valuation and considerable uncertainty, earning those gains may be a rough ride for investors.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The state of IonQ’s business
Given its inability to address profitability and the uncertainty of how the megacaps will compete in the quantum industry, the first question is why IonQ will even survive the next five years.
The likely answer to this question is the fact that IonQ’s successes appear to stand in contrast to the more dire predictions about the industry. For example, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood predicts the industry will not develop “meaningful applications” for the technology until the mid-to-late 2040s, which bodes poorly for the company on the surface.
Nonetheless, companies such as Microsoft and AstraZeneca have applied IonQ’s technology to help solve problems. Thus, even if quantum computing stocks generate less investor interest than other tech names, IonQ seems to already be attracting commercial interest.
Why IonQ stands out
Investors should also consider its competitive advantages. IonQ stands out from its start-up peers, and even from larger companies in quantum computing such as IBM and Google’s parent Alphabet, through trapped-ion architecture.
Trapped-ion quantum bits (qubits) hold their quantum states longer. This reduces error rates, a critical attribute since error rates have long plagued the development of quantum systems.
Moreover, IonQ has formed key partnerships, natively integrating quantum-as-a-service (QaaS) with Google Cloud, Amazon‘s AWS, and Microsoft’s Azure.
However, the most critical partnership may be with Nvidia. IonQ’s Superion 256 links to Nvidia’s supercomputing rack. As it orchestrates workloads with Nvidia’s CUDA-Q software, IonQ’s quantum processing unit (QPU) and Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) can work seamlessly, giving it an edge over its peers. Additionally, the fact that IonQ appears to follow Nvidia’s playbook in leading its industry could be an added bonus for investors.
$34.06-$0.93 (-2.66%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 11/11/26
IonQ by the numbers
Unfortunately, it is unclear how these breakthroughs drive the stock now and in the future.
The $319 million in revenue it earned in the first nine months of 2026 was far above the $68 million reported in the same period a year ago. Investors should also note that it earned $174 million of that revenue in the third quarter.
However, operating expenses remain high, and the massive increase did not stop the company from losing $501 million in the first three quarters of the year. Also, because it holds only about $1 billion in liquidity, IonQ will likely need to issue more debt or equity in the foreseeable future, which could pressure the stock.
Furthermore, even though its valuation is at multiyear lows, its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 32 implies significant overvaluation. Still, investors should also consider the analysts forecast 293% revenue growth for this year before it slows to 68% in 2027. That growth places downward pressure on its valuation, so much so that its forward P/S ratio is 26 and the forward one-year sales multiple (the 2028 P/S ratio) is just 15.
Growth rates beyond 2028 remain unknown. Still, if IonQ maintained rapid revenue growth until 2031, that would take the sales multiple into the low single digits at current prices. That fact also applies even if the growth rate fell by 10 percentage points in each of the next three years. That situation alone would probably be enough to push the stock higher, assuming the company stays out of financial trouble.
IonQ going forward
IonQ appears on track to trade at a significantly higher level in 2031.
Admittedly, a lot can happen in five years, and since it likely does not hold enough liquidity to keep its doors open for that long, investors should expect it to issue shares or take on additional debt during that time. If investors view that negatively, it could hurt the stock.
However, its 32 P/S ratio is low enough that revenue growth in the mid double digits and higher is going to place significant pressure on the valuation, and a sales multiple in the low single digits is possible if the stock’s price stayed the same. That means as long as it can maintain investor confidence, it should push IonQ stock higher.
Ultimately, this stock is likely too volatile and uncertain for risk-averse investors. Nonetheless, if one has some tolerance for risk and stock price fluctuations, owning IonQ stock over the next five years could ultimately bring market-beating returns.
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Source: www.fool.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.