Alphabet Missed Its Q3 Estimates, and I Couldn’t Care Less

There’s no getting around it. Google parent Alphabet (GOOG -1.45%) (GOOGL -1.40%) fell short of last quarter’s estimates, and the stock took a sizable tumble as a result. Investors are understandably worried the company is spending too much on artificial intelligence, and not getting enough in return to offset weakness on other fronts. And to be fair, it’s not an unreasonable concern.

The conclusions drawn here are based on last quarter’s numbers and put them together in a way that doesn’t paint a perfectly accurate picture, though. I think once the initial shock wears off, the market’s going to connect the dots I’m about to, reinflating this stock’s pre-earnings price.

Image source: Getty Images.

The quarter in question

Alphabet turned $127.6 billion in revenue into a per-share profit of $2.12 during the three months ending in September. While the top line grew 25% year over year, earnings fell 26% from the year-ago comparison of $2.87. Perhaps worse, both fell short of analysts’ consensus for sales of $128.2 billion and a per-share profit of $3.02. The stock crashed on Thursday following Wednesday evening’s release of these results.

GOOGL – Alphabet

$279.84-$3.98 (-1.40%)

NASDAQ · As of 5:00 PM ET 10/30/26

The real stumbling block, however, was cash flow. Free cash flow turned negative to the tune of nearly $9.1 billion following the company’s first-ever swing to negative free cash flow of over $5.8 billion in Q2 of this year. Blame capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure, mostly — Alphabet shelled out $51.4 billion in capital expenditures in the third quarter, up from Q2’s $44.9 billion.

That being said, the company’s core business was lackluster in Q3 as well. Google’s search-advertising revenue grew only 12% year over year to $63.5 billion versus expectations of $64.9 billion, slowing from the second quarter’s growth pace of nearly 17%. Investors fear it may be a sign that the growing use of AI chatbots is chipping away at Alphabet’s breadwinning business. YouTube’s ad business slowed as well.

Still, there’s one bright spot. That’s cloud computing, where the company reports its AI-related results, including TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) revenue. Google Cloud’s sales soared more than 100% to $30.7 billion last quarter, expanding this business’s operating income from $3.6 billion in Q3 of last year to $11.1 billion this time around. Analysts were only expecting cloud revenue of $29.2 billion.

The context that’s missing regarding Alphabet

But negative cash flow and that dramatic drop in per-share profits? They’re a bummer, to be sure. Just don’t lose perspective on either one of them.

As for reported earnings, yes, net income slipped from $35 billion in the third quarter of 2025 to $26.2 billion this time around. This includes an $8.2 billion expense that was a $12.8 billion benefit in a comparable quarter a year earlier; however, it primarily reflects an unrealized loss on the company’s equity position in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -6.37%) after its value declined over the three-month stretch. This is a line on the income statement that had been consistently positive for several quarters, boosting Alphabet’s reported bottom line. And given enough time, it will turn positive again.

Image source: Alphabet’s Q3-2026 press release.

Nevertheless, operating cash flow (which strips out the impact of price changes of securities owned by Alphabet) still fell from $48.4 billion in Q3-2025 to $42.3 billion last quarter. What about that?

That’s a legitimate question/concern. Just understand what’s included in this number. Much of this difference can be attributed to disproportionate changes in costs, such as taxes, inventory, and “other assets,” which were compared to a big bump in accrued expenses booked in last year’s second quarter that didn’t apply this time around.

Image source: Alphabet’s Q3-2026 press release.

However, none of this is a true reflection of the health of Alphabet’s actual business operation. That’s still best illustrated by operating income, which improved 30% from $31.2 billion to $40.6 billion during the September quarter.

And as for that $51.3 billion worth of capital expenditures the company made on artificial intelligence investments — more than doubling the year-ago comp of just under $24 billion — which dragged free cash flow into negative territory, yes, that’s tough to digest. Just don’t forget that’s roughly the right amount given the full-year capex budget of $195 billion and $205 billion suggested with Q2’s results. No surprises there.

Moreover, this spending is arguably worth it. In addition to cloud computing’s year-over-year revenue doubling to $30.7 billion, Alphabet’s backlog has grown from $519.5 billion as of mid-year to $567.7 billion now, with most of that AI-related. That’s more than an entire year’s worth of companywide revenue, for perspective. If the hype surrounding artificial intelligence is merely a bubble, someone forgot to tell these customers.

Alphabet’s results were more good than bad

It wasn’t a perfect quarter by any stretch of the imagination. And I’ve got the same basic concerns as most other investors. Chief among them is Google’s slowing search business, which may or may not be due to the rise of AI chatbots. It needs to be addressed. I also wish the company could spend less on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

A great many of last quarter’s red flags are only temporary in one way or another, though, with some of the weakness simply reflecting recent price volatility in equity holdings in other companies. It happens.

So, I’m not sweating the knee-jerk bearish response too much, and I’m certainly not flinching with my own position in this name. I’ve got a feeling the trading crowd will see the complete bigger bullish picture soon enough, and reprice Alphabet shares accordingly.

Source: www.fool.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.