IonQ Is Down 65% From Its High. History Suggests This Is What Happens Next.

IonQ (IONQ -5.15%), a developer of quantum computing systems, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) five years ago. Its stock started trading at $10.60 and eventually hit an all-time high of $82.09 on Oct. 13, 2025.

Today, IonQ trades at about $29. Let’s see why it dropped 65% from its all-time high — and where it might be headed over the next year.

Image source: Getty Images.

How fast is IonQ growing?

Quantum computers can process certain computing tasks much faster than classical computers, but they’re bigger, more expensive, and output a higher percentage of errors. IonQ, one of the early movers in this nascent market, is making quantum systems smaller, more scalable, and more accurate by trapping individual ions with tiny lasers to achieve quantum states.

Unlike older electron-powered systems, IonQ’s trapped ion systems don’t need to be cryogenically refrigerated. They can also achieve higher gate fidelity (accuracy) rates. It primarily sells its systems to research institutions and government agencies and offers remote access to them through its cloud-based quantum computing service.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect IonQ’s revenue to surge from $130 million to $1.04 billion as it launches new systems, increases its total quantum computing power, and expands its rapidly growing government business.

$30.09-$1.64 (-5.15%)

NYSE · As of 3:57 PM ET 10/30/26

Why did IonQ’s stock pull back?

IonQ’s business is firing on all cylinders, but a few issues weighed down its stock. At its peak, IonQ’s market cap hit $27.2 billion — or 209 times the revenue it would generate in 2025. That lofty valuation set it up for a steep drop as the Iran war, persistent inflation, and the Fed’s first rate hike in three years drove investors away from growth stocks over the past year.

Another factor was its planned acquisition of the cybersecurity firm Elisity for $1.3 billion in an all-stock deal. To fund that acquisition and its future investments, it priced a $2 billion stock and warrant offering in mid-October. That dilution should persist for the foreseeable future.

What does history suggest will happen next?

Today, IonQ looks more reasonably valued (but certainly not cheap) at 30 times this year’s sales. However, many analysts still expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rates again over the next 12 months to tame inflation. If that happens, IonQ’s stock could sink a lot lower.

To see how much damage rising interest rates could do to IonQ, we should look back at Dec. 28, 2022 — when its stock sank to an all-time low of $3.02 per share. At the time, rising rates compressed its market cap to $624 million.

But that was still 57 times the revenue IonQ generated in 2022 — so it was fundamentally more expensive at $3 per share than it is today at $29 per share. Therefore, we could see IonQ’s stock trade sideways — rather than plunge to the single digits — if interest rates keep rising.

Source: www.fool.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.