Netflix and ServiceNow Have Fallen More Than 30% From Their Records. Both Are Stocks to Buy and Hold Through 2030.
Netflix (NFLX -2.16%) stock trades near $64 as I write. It hasn’t closed this low since August 2024, and it’s about 52% below its June 2025 record of $133.91.
ServiceNow (NOW -2.15%) has held up better lately. Still, shares near $158 remain about 32% off their January 2025 record close.
Drops this big can be a warning. But in both cases, I think the business kept moving in the right direction while the stock went the other way. And I think each gives investors a specific number to track on the way to 2030.
Image source: Netflix.
Netflix: more profit at the same price
The last time Netflix stock closed this low, the streaming giant had just reported its second quarter of 2024. Its operating income for the four quarters through that period was about $8.6 billion.
Showing how much the company has grown since then, Netflix’s operating income in the past four quarters came to about $15.6 billion — about 80% more. Revenue in the same stretch climbed around 37%. In the third quarter of 2026 alone, operating margin was 34.6%, against 28.2% a year ago (when a $619 million Brazilian tax charge weighed on it).
And buybacks shrank the diluted share count by around 5% in that time, so profit per share grew even faster.
Management expects the margin to keep widening. Netflix is guiding for a 2026 operating margin of 31.5%, up from 29.5% in 2025, and its outlook points to operating income growth of over 20% this year.
NFLX – Netflix
$62.52-$1.38 (-2.16%)
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/27/26
Netflix doesn’t give a 2030 target. But if operating income grew just 10% a year from 2026 through 2030 (half this year’s rate), it’d hit around $24 billion in 2030. Add a share count falling about 3% a year, like it did in the last year, and profit per share could climb about 13% a year.
At around 17 times expected 2027 earnings, the stock arguably doesn’t need a higher price-to-earnings multiple to produce a good return from that path.
The top risk for Netflix is engagement. In its third-quarter letter, Netflix acknowledged “some investor concern about our view hours growth,” and it cut its 2026 ad revenue forecast to around $2.7 billion from about $3 billion. Price hikes have worked because subscribers keep watching. If viewing stalls, this pricing power might weaken.
ServiceNow needs to earn its 14% run
ServiceNow’s stock has climbed around 14% since Oct. 13, from about $139 to about $158, with no fresh quarterly results. The enterprise workflow software company’s third-quarter report is due after Wednesday’s close.
Of course, this run ups the stakes. ServiceNow stock now costs around 32 times expected 2027 adjusted earnings, a far higher price-to-earnings multiple than Netflix’s.
ServiceNow’s own guidance sets the bar. For the third quarter, management guided for subscription revenue of $3,975 million to $3,980 million, up 20.5% year over year. It also sees 19.5% growth in current remaining performance obligations (cRPO), the contract revenue it expects to recognize in the coming 12 months. On a reported basis, this would continue a slowdown in cRPO growth, which was 22.5% in the first quarter before dropping to 21% in the second.
Non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share, meanwhile, rose a slower 11% year over year in Q2.
NOW – ServiceNow
$154.78-$3.40 (-2.15%)
NYSE · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/27/26
To be fair, part of the slowdown in subscription revenue is timing. The second quarter’s 24.5% growth got help from U.S. federal customers pulling some revenue forward from the third quarter.
The long-term goal also leaves some room. At its May 4 Financial Analyst Day, ServiceNow set a target of over $30 billion in subscription revenue by 2030, nearly twice its 2026 guidance of around $15.8 billion. Getting there takes growth of around 17% a year from 2027 through 2030, below the rate it’s guiding for now.
For ServiceNow, the main risk is artificial intelligence (AI) agents doing work that customers pay it for today. That would probably show up first in cRPO. If the growth rate falls far short of the 19.5% guide, I’d take it seriously.
Which one first?
In the end, I think both are stocks worth buying and holding through 2030. Netflix’s operating income keeps rising while its stock price falls. And ServiceNow can meet its own 2030 target even if its growth slows a little from here.
But I’d buy Netflix first. It’s the cheaper stock by a lot, and its earnings path doesn’t depend on a single report.
ServiceNow is the one I’d consider adding after Wednesday’s results, if cRPO growth stays near the 19.5% management guided for. After a 14% climb in about two weeks, I’d want to see that number first.
Source: www.fool.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.