History Says Nvidia Stock Usually Rises in the Fourth Quarter — It Has in 20 of the Last 27
Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) hit another record on Tuesday, Oct. 6, closing at $239.24. If history’s any guide, the October-to-December quarter has usually been a good one for the artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant’s stock.
Measured from the end of September to the end of December, Nvidia‘s shares rose in 20 of the 27 years from 1999 through 2025. The median change for all 27 fourth quarters was a gain of around 14%.
But the record comes with two caveats. Nvidia’s stock has climbed in most quarters during this stretch, not just the last one of the year. From 2000 through 2025, for example, it also gained in 20 of 26 first quarters.
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